Let The Stats Influence On-Course Decisions

A few weeks ago at the PGA Tour’s Waste Management Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, Az., Rickie Fowler was in contention at the 15^th hole, which is a reachable par five. 

Fowler chose to lay up and has taken a lot of heat over it, as recently as Bay Hill, where he was in a round table discussion with Arnold Palmer and two other PGA Tour stars on the Golf Channel. 

There have also been some very bright golf announcers who have also been vocal in disagreeing with Rickie’s call. 

Listen to Core Golf Academy’s PGA Tour coach Sean Foley has to say on the subject and then decide what decision you would have made.

Fowler was in contention, sitting perfect in the fairway with less than 230 yards to go on the 15^th hole, which is a par five with a green surrounded by water. 

His two playing partners who were behind him and further away from the hole had already tried to go for the green.  Fowler got his yardage, pulled out his three-wood, looked up and all he could see was water. 

He put the club back, re-checked his yardage, pulled the three-wood again, looked up and again all he could see was water. 

At that point, leader Hunter Mahan was just about finished, Fowler knew he needed to make something happen and with out a clear vision of the green on 15, he decided to lay up. From that point on, he had everyone and his cousins analyzing his decision. 

Now, here is his thought process.

While he was closer to the green than his two playing partners who went for it, he couldn’t see anything good happening, which, mentally, meant his chance of hitting a decent shot was zero. 

If the water wasn’t surrounding the green he could have just blasted a three-wood up there and had a short chip/pitch if he didn’t hit the green. 

Hitting it in the water, though, would have made for a difficult par five and more than likely, after the emotion of hitting it in the water, a bogey six was a real possibility. 

Fowler knew there was still the short 17^th hole, a par four, on which he could drive the ball on and make birdie, but more importantly, he knew this about his current situation. 

If he laid up to 75 yards or less, his stats told him that:

He had played the par fives in -30 for the season to that point.

He hit 86 per cent of his greens from less than 75 yards.

He hit it, on average, nine feet, six inches from the hole within 75 yards.

He made 44 per cent of his putts under 10 feet and 95 per cent of his putts from under five feet.

So, he knew if he could lay up to within 75 yards, he should hit it on average within 10 feet of the hole and make that putt 44 per cent of the time and, if he got it within five feet of the hole, he would hole it 95 per cent of the time. 

Armed with that knowledge, along with a virtual guarantee that, with the mental image he had with his three-wood in his hand of only seeing water with the short 17^th hole still to play (and by the way he drives it 290 yards and hits 62 per cent of his fairways), do you think he made the right decision? 

I believe he did, but unfortunately, with the pin cut at the front of the green, he hit it just short, still less than 15 feet from the hole, didn’t make the putt and walked off with par, with no ground made up on Mahan. 

When asked by Arnold Palmer about the hole and the situation and would he like the shot over, his only comment was about his wedge shot. That was the only shot he would like to do over again, but he still would not have gone for it.

While the stats didn’t work out for Fowler that time, the fact he could not see anything good coming from trying to go for a green surrounded by water and knowing his stats within certain distances convinced him what he needed to do to give himself the best chance at making birdie. 

The fact he didn’t make birdie is really immaterial since it comes down to human execution, but he gave himself a chance while so many of us hurt ourselves with faulty decision-making due mainly to lack of information about our games.

If you or your students really want to become better, keep track of what you/they do and  know the stats. It will help you make those difficult decisions with a clear mind and increase the odds of success. 

The bottom line is that Rickie Fowler finished second and made $648,000 and virtually secured his tour card and a job for 2011.

Do you still think he made the wrong decision?