CGIA Executive Director Is Optimistic, But Sees Potential Challenges

Keith Keindel detects the same economic optimism that GNN has been discussing since the calendar flipped to 2010.

Take a look at the current GNN poll and you will see that the majority of respondents have indicated a positive outlook for this year and the executive director of the Canadian Golf Industry Association goes along with that.

“I think it would be fair to say it’s optimistic about it being a better year than the previous year,” said Keindel.

“The dollar has stabilized to a certain extent, at least to within a range that’s much more manageable than what it was a year ago at this time where you had some pretty nasty surprises,” he said.

“The other thing that I think fits in with that is commodity prices have stabilized to a certain extent, at least the commodities that we use in the golf area. In fact, in many cases, they’ve come down from what they were a year, a year-and-a-half ago and that’s helped too,” he added.

While the Great Depression that some were predicting never materialized in 2009, it was indeed a challenging year for companies and while sales may have been affected for many, it wasn’t as bad as it could have been, particularly in credit departments.

“This year, having been through a few down cycles, this was very good in terms of how it was managed by both sides. Forgetting the past, (2009) was much better than it could have been in terms of how the whole credit situation worked itself out,” said Keindel, adding that all challenges were not of an economic nature.

“It sure had its ups and downs. I think the other thing that compounded it was the weather,” said Keindel, remembering the golf industry joke about what follows two days of rain?

Monday.

“We had to a certain extent a lot of that this year. Certainly, that impacts a lot of businesses. You almost have to look at it by category, especially when you start losing tournament business. That can have a pretty dramatic effect on things,” he said.

“The booking season was solid. People, if the stars align properly, are looking for repeats. From an inventory point of view, people have been more cautious, but they’re still in a position to provide repeats on key items,” added Keindel.

There are a few roadblocks ahead that have the potential to trip up the industry on the road to recovery. Once again, the weather will be a wild card in golf and any kind of inclement conditions could be a damper in various regions across the country.

British Columbia and Ontario, specifically, have yet another potential roadblock ahead with the introduction of the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) on July 1.

Keindel says he can only offer his personal opinion and he feels that if it does affect golf, it will be part of an overall result of consumers in general being cautious with their spending.

“I think the real question there is will the HST going to put Ontario and potentially B.C. back into recession? Who knows? I don’t think anybody knows the answer to that question,” said Keindel, who feels the HST will come to other provinces in the near future.

“I think it has the potential to have a dramatic effect on the average consumer. If you look at the demographics from the (National Allied Golf Association) economic impact study, maybe you’d say the average golfer is not the average consumer and that may be a fair comment,” he added.

“I think the average consumer – especially people who are retired, fixed income, a variety of things – are going to get hit really hard with this thing moving forward,” said Keindel, who questions the timing of the HST’s implementation so close to an economic downturn.

“The economists that I’ve spoken to have said that, theoretically, it would be possible to have more jobs out of it, but factually, all it’s going to do is provide some very minor savings, but it’s going to be a huge windfall from a tax perspective for the government,” he said.

While the outlook on the economy appears to be generally positive, so does the attitude towards the fall buying shows, where companies have questioned their return on investment.

Keindel concedes that there is still work to be done to avoid future confrontations and make the shows work for both sides.

“We’ve still got some changes to make in Ontario. That’s up to us, not up to Reed (Exhibitions) or the zone. We need to get our act together,” he said.

With the move towards rep shows instead of the extravaganzas of the past, Keindel says he is negotiating to make that format more uniform across the country, with the exception of Alberta, which is generally accepted as a successful show by most exhibitors in the old format.

While there is still some work to be done with the zones, he adds that there is work to be done within the CGIA and that a show guide for association members is currently in the works.

“We’ll have an agreed-upon display format by category,” he said. “We haven’t agreed to anything yet, but one of the things I’ve been asked to do is put that in front of the members in April, which I’ll do at our AGM,” said Keindel.

“Hopefully, if we can reach agreement, that will be one way of containing costs, which we’re trying to do. We’re trying to look for every way we can to make the shows efficient. That’s a combination of getting more pros out and also minimizing our costs.”

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