Happy New Year! What’s Your Mood?
January 3, 2010 by Ian Hutchinson
Good morning. Welcome to 2010.
Feeling a little stuffed and sluggish post-holidays after turkey and cookies and pies, oh my! We’re back with a healthy diet of industry news on GNN that will get you up and running in no time.
As the wheels start grinding towards full throttle at the beginning of the year, the optimism that goes with a fresh start is a common feeling and, quite likely, a necessary quality for survival in an era that sometimes seems apocalyptic in the golf industry at times.
A year ago, we were discussing how the media was overly negative in its reporting about the recession which had struck Canada the previous autumn. The truth is it wasn’t just the media delivering this message, which led to a bleak outlook for 2009.
From this perspective, it wasn’t as bad as the prognosticators predicted. The next depression did not arrive, as some had predicted, and Canada did not get hit as badly as the United States, which has struggled longer and harder than we have in this country.
We may be a little battered and bruised, but most of us are still standing a year or so after those grim predictions that may have cast a pall in early 2009. That brings us to today, when optimism is much more noticeable by comparison.
For one thing, the indications are that we are climbing out of this economic abyss that we fell into in the fall of 2008. We may actually be bumping along the bottom, but at least we’ve landed are ready for our ascent out of here.
Assuming that unemployment starts to ease in hard-hit areas and that government stimulus funding works, I believe there is a pent-up desire for existing golfers to play more after perhaps holding back the past year or so.
A few operators have mentioned in discussions late last year that their tournament business is looking up for them in 2010, so it could be that corporate golf is at least starting to make a comeback.
The golf industry is now armed with a rosy economic impact study that came through the National Allied Golf Association. NAGA is now planning to approach the federal government on important matters that affect the game at a national golf day that will likely be held in Ottawa sometime this spring.
However, there are some loose rocks that the game can grab on to that could send it tumbling back down into the economic abyss. That’s not said to be negative, but rather, to point out some potential pitfalls that are ahead.
One disturbing aspect of NAGA’s economic impact study was the statement that participation in the game in 2008 was down by as much as 10 per cent in 2008, before the recession hit. Is it possible that it could be down another 10 to 15 per cent since then for an overall drop of 25 per cent? What can be done to fix that?
High interest rates may rear their ugly head in 2010, possibly leading to a housing bubble as people struggled to deal with their suddenly-higher household debt. That could once again lead to less money for green fees, as well as affect golf operators who are also paying back loans.
If there is less money as a result of high interest rates, how will golfers react to paying the HST in Ontario and British Columbia, once that takes effect in July? Another important question is what other provinces will have the HST thrust upon them in 2010?
The wild card, either positive or negative, in 2010 will be the weather and how that will affect participation?
Those are a few checks and balances that we need to consider in 2010. While not trying to emphasize the negative, we do need to face reality, so what’s your opinion? We’ve asked GNN bloggers such as Kevin Thistle, Tiffany Gordon and Kyle German to add their thoughts this week.
For your part, the first poll of 2010 is as follows:
Which statement accurately reflects your outlook on 2010?
Happy Days Are Here Again.
Cautiously Optimistic.
More Of The Same
Still Got Those Low-Down Blues
Of course, GNN readers are also welcome to expand their thoughts inside the GNN Forum, where a couple of golf courses across the country have recently posted job openings. After you’re done casting your vote on the new GNN Poll, be sure to visit the GNN Forum to start your own discussion or add to an existing one.
Ian Hutchinson is a veteran Canadian golf writer, whose history in the game includes an extensive background with Canadian golf trade publications. A golf columnist with Sun Media, Hutch is also a regular contributor to publications and websites in Canada and the United States.
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I have just finished my Atlantic Golf Industry Update and have encouraged clubs in our region to be proactive in growing their business and the industry in generally. It is not a year to sit back and hope that it will get better.
In our area the clubs that agressively and creatively went after new business in 2009 showed modest gains. Well 2010 will take more of the same. We all need to work hard to re-ignite the excitement and enjoyment of the game. Make it as easy as possible for new players to get involved and have fun learning the game.
I clicked on Cautiously Optomistic… the only caution is if we can get all operators recognizing the need to be more golfer friendly….
Cautiously optimistic is the way for 2010. Many of the clubs I call on in SW Ontario have not experienced the significant down turns that I sense come from other parts of the province. Reasonable outlooks for 2009 did not result in the disappointment faced in other ares.
The big thing I believe in the rural areas is the exisitence of the “resonable greens fee”. Out here we are not dealing with $100 plus fees and the golfers were still likely to cobble together the $40 required for an afternoon on the links.